![]() ![]() That's why people are always asking, “Who is the next Jordan?” 1, and there are fans of the older generation who claim that Wilt Chamberlain was in fact the GOAT. Sure, there are LeBron James stans who will insist James is No. Stay tuned for more.One thing that most NBA fans can generally agree on is that Michael Jordan is the greatest player of all-time. we are looking at Tyrese Haliburton and Desmond Bane as serious candidates to win NBA’s Most Improved Player) and other fun calculations. While it’s not perfect, it’s likely very helpful for betting (e.g. ![]() ![]() As the offseason progresses, we’re going to continue to cite this metric during our NBA coverage. Thanks to RotoWire and Ferrigan, we have an assigned impact number for every single player in the league. “But these are good enough estimates to work in broad strokes,” Ferrigan added.īased on these calculations, here are the top projections for 2023-24: Nikola Jokic Once that was done, however, he succeeded in providing a reasonably predictive Wins Above Replacement Player score (how many more wins would a team win because of this person relative to a league average) for all individuals signed to an NBA roster.įerrigan explained that these numbers are “by no means gospel” and cautioned that projections based on box scores will not accurately capture defensive impact. So he also had to come up with estimates for that “using a simple linear regression” from last season. Once I had DRE per 48 minutes, it was pretty simple math to convert Total Projected Minutes and DRE per 48 minutes above replacement level (-2.0) to a projected Wins Above Replacement (WARP) measure.”ĭRE is a metric that includes personal fouls, which RotoWire does not project. After figuring out the minutes-weighted projected league average for raw DRE per 48, I backed that average out (the same basic idea as the intercept in the original DRE regression) to give me DRE per 48 minutes. “ used the weights for DRE outlined in the linked post to create a raw DRE per 48 number. The first step was to convert their per-game rates into per-48-minute rates, which are more aligned with per-100 possessions. Fortunately for us, he was interested and this was similar to projects he had done in the past. We reached out to Ferrigan and asked if he would convert the raw numbers from RotoWire into his catch-all metric. But the shortened version is that it’s like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) but weights derived from RAPM (which you can learn more about here) instead of just arbitrary weights. ![]() You can learn more about the metric via Nylon Calculus. This individual recommended Daily RAPM Estimate (DRE) by Kevin Ferrigan. We asked a basketball data scientist who works for an NBA team to tell us which was the best statistic using just the data provided by Rotowire. RotoWire has a fantastic resource that provides full-season projections with every box score stat for every single player in the league. Although the best all-in-one metrics in basketball also include tracking data and on-off factors, we wanted to find a crude number to assign to each player. No one seems to agree on how to quantify defensive impact, for example.īut that won’t stop us from waving the white flag this early in the process. There are countless variables that interfere along the way and even still, no one agrees about how to measure individual success. Unfortunately, as we all know, there are no shortcuts or solutions that tell us exactly who is going to do what over the course of an NBA season. Gamblers and fantasy basketball players and fans of the game around the world have endless use for similar data. NBA teams spend millions of dollars hiring the most innovative thinkers to create the most advanced projection models. Predicting on-court impact before it happens is no easy task. So with ample time to sit around and just think about hoops without any games, we indulged perhaps our most curious itch. The doldrums of the offseason may mean vacation for most of the league, but the recess allows us time to think about basketball in innovative ways.Īmbitious projects that would have little use during the season, or get lost in the frenzy of the draft and free agency have more room to breathe and come to life this time of year. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox. Welcome to Layup Lines, our basketball newsletter. ![]()
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